The number that is not on the record.
The public record is the Pick of the Day — one graded play a day. Subscribers also get Official Bets, and those are staked too. This page publishes that fuller book, and the split between losses where the number was right and wins where it was not.
Public record — Pick of the Day only
This is the ledger at /track-record, unchanged.
Full staked book — every staked play
Which way the luck ran
Most recent bad beats
Most recent lucky wins
Why both numbers are here
The public record is the Pick of the Day and only the Pick of the Day — one play a day, the highest expected-value play on the board. That is the number the site claims and the number it is judged on. Subscribers also receive Official Bets, which carry real stakes, so a fuller book exists whether or not it is published. It is published here so the two figures can be compared directly instead of one of them being reachable only by a paying subscriber with a spreadsheet.
What counts as a bad beat
A bad beat is a loss where the market closed on our side of the number: we took the price, the market moved toward us, and the result still went the other way. A lucky win is the mirror — a win where the close moved against us. Both are counted. Reporting only the first would be selecting the losses that flatter us, which is the same thing as hiding them.
A play where the market never moved is neither. It is excluded from both counts and disclosed above, so the numbers reconcile against the plays that carry closing data rather than looking as though rows went missing. Plays with no closing-line capture — props, NRFI and period markets, mostly — are not counted at all.